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　　TPO 35

　　Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

　　In twenty years there will be fewer cars in use than there are today.

　　Use specific reasons and examples to support your answer.

　　文章：

　　The Earth today faces many problems. Among these problems, the top three, in some people's perspective, are probably global warming, pollution and energy crisis. All three, if we really look into them, can be connected with the pervasive use of private cars. It is because of this, I agree with the statement that there will be fewer cars in twenty years comparing with today.

　　First of all, people will definitely use fewer cars. If we look at the global media, we are seeing an increasing consciousness on environmental problems. Be it the famous documentay by Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth, or the "Earth One Hour" movement. They all indicate a global consensus: "We need to help the environment". So what's the easiest way to help? Using fewer cars. According to a survey conducted by the Ministry of Environmental Conservation in China, more than 40 percent of carbon dioxide produced by individuals are from private cars. If the trend of eco-friendly consciousness continues to grow in the next 20 years, people will, without a doubt, use fewer and fewer cars. So, in a nutshell, the first reason why people will drive less in twenty years is because they will be more environmentally-concerned.

　　Another key aspect is that, in twenty years, there will be fewer people in the world. If there are fewer people in the world, of course there will be fewer cars. If we are sensitive to global trends, we can see that a lot of countries in the world are facing a decrease in population. The biggest contributors to population growth, China and India, are also experiencing a decrease in the rate of population increase. In 20 years, I am confident that there will be, without a doubt, fewer people in the world. In this case, there will be a decrease in the needs of transportation. So, it is logical to assume that there will be fewer cars in the world twenty years from now.

　　A final argument I want to make is based on the ever developing technology. In the past twenty years, we have seen tremendous innovations taken place in the field of transportation. From high-speed trains to cars that run on electric, there is simply no telling what might happen twenty years from now. Considering how much we have achieved in the past twenty years, it is not so improbable for me to say that we might not even need cars in the near future. Who's to say that we won't be traveling on more efficient vehicles? Or maybe public transportation may become so convenient that we won't even consider using private transportation ever again? The fact is, we cannot deny these possibilities for they are very likely to happen. In this light, I am definitely supportive of the view that there will be fewer cars in the future.

　　From my arguments above, I think I am very optimistic about the future. I believe that, in twenty years, we will be living in a society with much fewer cars. And I am looking forward to that future.

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